Proposition 227 and Skyrocketing Test Scores: An Urban Legend from California

 

Stephen Krashen

The Journal of the Texas Association for Bilingual Education (in press)

 

“An Urban Legend is usually a (good / captivating / titillating / engrossing / incredible / worrying) story that has had a wide audience, is circulated spontaneously, has been told in several forms, and which many have chosen to believe (whether actively or passively) despite the lack of actual evidence to substantiate the story.”

 

I wish to add another Urban Legend to those that already exist, legends that in my opinion rank with the legend of alligators in the sewers of New York City.1  It is the “Skyrocket Legend”: As a result of dropping bilingual education, test scores in California “skyrocketed.”  

 

This legend has had serious consequences. The Skyrocket Legend was interpreted by many as a demonstration of the superiority of immersion over bilingual education, and has encouraged anti-bilingual education advocates to eliminate bilingual education in other states. I will argue here that there are more reasonable explanations for the test score increase and review evidence showing that bilingual education is a very helpful idea.

 

Bogus means of increasing test scores

 

Why did test scores go up in California? Proposition 227 took force in 1998, at the same time the new SAT9 test was introduced. Research (Linn, Graue, and Sanders, 1990) has shown that after new tests are introduced, test scores rise, which is why commercial tests need to be recalibrated every few years. Typical test score inflation is about 1.5 to two points per year, which accounts for a great deal of the gains seen in California. "Test inflation" is especially prevalent in California where the same test has now been given for four years in a row, punishments for lower scores are severe, and rewards for higher scores are generous.  This pressure has resulted in districts using unusual and extraordinary means for raising test scores, some of which have nothing to do with increased competence.

 

Among the bogus means of increasing test scores are extensive training in certain test-taking skills and selective testing, i.e. excluding low scoring children from taking the test. Asimov (2000) suggests that selective testing may have occurred in California. She reported that in many cases in which SAT9 scores increased from year to year, the number of students tested decreased. According to Asimov, “questionable pairings” appeared in 22 San Francisco Area school districts.  And of course some test-taking skills will raise scores without an increase in competence: If there is no penalty for guessing, for example, simply encouraging guessing will raise scores. Use of these means to raise scores is like claiming to raise the temperature of the room by lighting a match under the thermometer.

 

There is no evidence linking test score increases to dropping bilingual education. Stanford professor Kenji Hakuta and his associates found, in fact, that test scores rose in districts in California that kept bilingual education, as well as in districts that never had bilingual education (Orr, Butler, Bousquet, and Hakuta. 2000; Hakuta, 2000).

 

Thompson, DiCerbo, Mahoney and MacSwan (2002) examined gains in SAT9 scores in California adjusting for the number of students in different schools, and using scaled scores, and found that the gains made by limited English proficient students and English proficient students were nearly identical (table 1). (Scaled scores have equal intervals: a ten point increase, for example, from 525 to 535 represents the same gain as a ten point increase from 605 to 615. This is not the case for percentiles.)   Thompson et. al. reported similar results in an analysis of gains made by cohorts, eg. Students who were second graders in 1998, third graders in 1999 and third graders in 2000.

 

Table 1: Gains in SAT9 scores

grade

1998-99

99-2000

2000-01

 

 

 

 

2 LEP

7.84

4.2

12.9

2 ALL

5.88

5.39

11.21

2 EP

 

4.4

 

 

 

 

 

3 LEP

8.3

3.12

11.58

3 ALL

5.02

4.57

9.6

3 EP

 

4.72

 

 

 

 

 

4 LEP

6.47

2.16

7.6

4 ALL

2.69

3.79

6.48

4 EP

 

3.58

 

 

 

 

 

5 LEP

3.81

1.27

4.54

5 ALL

1.65

1.83

3.44

5 EP

 

1.88

 

 

 

 

 

6 LEP

3.56

1.96

4.18

6 ALL

2.12

1.51

3.68

6 EP

 

1.97

 

LEP = limited English proficient

ALL = all students combined

EP = English proficient only

From: Thompson, DiCerbo, Mahoney and MacSwan (2002)

 

Oceanside

 

A great of attention has been directed to Oceanside, a district that dropped bilingual education and embraced English immersion.  As illustrated in table 2, test scores for limited English proficient children in Oceanside have certainly increased since Prop. 227. But they were unusually low to begin with, and have only risen to the state average.

 

Table 2: SAT9 Scores for Oceanside: grade 2

 

 

 

 

 

 

1998: pre 277

1999

2000

2001

 

CA

 

19

23

28

31

 

Oceanside

 

12

26

32

32

 

Source: State of California

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Why were Oceanside’s pre-227 scores in 1998 so low? We have several reasons to suspect that Oceanside's previous bilingual program, the one that was dropped, was poorly conceived. In fact, it was not a bilingual education program: It was a Spanish-only program. In an article in the Washington Post (Sept. 3, 2000), Oceanside Superintendent Ken Noonan stated that before Proposition 227 Oceanside's bilingual program was all-Spanish, lasting "for up to four years, even longer for some. Only after being designated fluent in English would a child's learning in English begin in earnest" (Noonan, 2000).

 

Properly organized bilingual programs, by contrast, introduce children to English from day one, and academic subjects are taught in English as soon as they can be made comprehensible. Failing to provide any English instruction will naturally lead to miserable results on English-language achievement tests. This explains why Oceanside's test scores showed substantial improvement, especially for the youngest children, when English was introduced.

 

In addition, in an article in the San Diego Union-Tribune on October 6, 2000 (Parnet, 2000), it was revealed that before Prop. 227 books were in very short supply in at least one Oceanside school with a significant number of limited English proficient students: Before 227, "a lot of students (at Laurel Elementary School) didn't even have books.”  The Union Tribune article also gives the reader the impression that virtually any activity unrelated to test preparation was dropped from the school day, an impression confirmed by a recent article (Parnet, 2001) which stated that at one school, “morning assemblies were eliminated. Noneducational field trips were canceled, Teacher training workshops shelved. All done so the elementary schools could concentrate on language arts and math.”  In addition, strong carrots (financial rewards) and sticks (threats of school closure) were instituted.

 

It thus appears that Oceanside dropped an inadequate bilingual program, and at the same time focused nearly all its energy on test preparation.  In addition, gains for Oceanside's English learners were “not remarkable”  but were similar to gains made in many California districts that retained bilingual education (Hakuta, 2000; Orr, Butler, Bousquet, and Hakuta,  2000).

 

Despite the problems with the SAT9, the results do not show that dropping bilingual education is responsible for test score increases. In fact, in another state that voted to dismantle bilingual education, Arizona, limited English proficient students in bilingual education have outscored those in all-English programs on SAT9 tests of English reading for the last three years (Crawford, 2000). Despite numerous efforts to publicize this result, it was rarely reported by the media.

 

Why bilingual education helps English language development

 

Briefly, quality bilingual programs introduce English right away and teach subject matter in English as soon as it can be made comprehensible, but they also develop literacy in the first language and teach subject matter in the first language in early stages. Developing literacy in the first language is a short cut to English literacy. It is much easier to learn to read in a language one understands, and once a child can read in the primary language, reading ability transfers rapidly to English. Teaching subject matter in the first language stimulates intellectual development and provides students with valuable knowledge that will help the child understand instruction when it is presented in English.

 

What controlled studies say

 

The only valid way to determine the effect of bilingual education is to perform controlled studies. In these studies, programs are compared in which the only difference is the use of the first language. SAT9 test score comparisons are not controlled studies. SAT9 comparisons often include English learners who are not in bilingual programs, and such comparisons do not consider a host of other factors that impact performance, such as poverty.

 

Scientifically valid controlled studies have been done, and they consistently show that students in properly organized bilingual programs acquire at least as much English as comparison students in all-English programs, and usually acquire more. The most recent review of this research is Greene  (1997) (see also Willig, 1985), who used statistical tools far more precise than those used in previous reviews.  Greene concluded that the use of the native language in instructing limited English proficient children has “beneficial effects” and that “efforts to eliminate the use of the native language in instruction ... harm children by denying them access to beneficial approaches.”  2

 

Studies from other countries are very consistent with results from the United States. Children in well-organized bilingual programs acquire as much of the second language as those in “immersion” programs or more.  Studies confirming this have been done with Turkish and Urdu speaking children in Norway, Punjabi speaking children in England,  Turkish and Arabic speaking children in the Netherlands, Finnish-speaking children in Sweden, Gapapuyngu speaking children in Australia, and Tzeltal and Tzotzil speaking children in Mexico (Krashen, 1999a).

 

Rossell and Baker (1996) have also reviewed the research on bilingual education but concluded that bilingual programs are not as effective as all-English immersion programs. Their review, however, inappropriately excluded a number of valid studies, and inappropriately included studies that were not valid comparisons, such as comparisons of different types of Canadian Immersion programs (Krashen 1996, 1999b). Even so, Rossell and Baker conclude that “additional, methodologically sound research needs to be conducted in order for the courts and policymakers to make intelligent decisions” (p. 39) and that “we are struck by how small the differences are ... between programs with very different amounts of English instruction” (p. 43). The Rossell and Baker review is by far the most negative review of bilingual education published; in fact, it is the only one I know of that claims that all-English alternatives are better, and it concludes that differences are not huge and that more research is necessary in order to make “intelligent decisions.”

 

Clearly, the published research is not consistent with claims that dropping bilingual education causes scores to “skyrocket” and does not support movements to make bilingual education illegal.

 

Summary

 

There is no question that test scores went up in California, but dropping bilingual education had nothing to do with the increase.  Test score increases in California appear to be a result of the usual “test score inflation” that occurs when new tests are introduced. In California, inflation has been particularly strong because of intense pressure to raise scores. Analysis of gains in individual districts shows that those that kept bilingual education improved and those that never did bilingual education improved; everybody improved in California and there were no obvious differences between gain made by English learners and English proficient children. Missing from nearly all discussions of the effectiveness of bilingual education is the consistent finding that controlled studies show that bilingual education works.  The Skyrocket Urban Legend is false.

 

Notes

 

1. Other  Urban Legends include: Humphrey Bogart was the original Gerber baby on their baby food ads,  the FBI monitors public libraries and notes who reads “subversive” books, and my favorite: If the entire population of China jumped up at the same time, the US would be swamped by a tidal wave. None of these are true. See www.urbanlegends.com  for many others.

 

2. The most recent study of the effectiveness of bilingual education was done by a research team headed by K.Oller and Eilers (in press).  At grade five, students in a bilingual program  (60% English, 40% Spanish) did as well as comparisons in an all English program (with an optional 10% of the day in Spanish) on tests of English literacy, and did far better on tests of Spanish.

 

References

 

Asimov, N. 2000. Test Scores Up, Test-Takers Down:  Link between participation, improvement on school exam prompts concern. San Francisco Chronicle, Saturday, July 22, 2000.

Crawford, J. 2000. Stanford 9 scores show a consistent edge for bilingual education. http://alec2000.org/craw1b.htm

Greene, J. 1997. A Meta-Analysis of the Rossell and Baker review of bilingual education research. Bilingual Research Journal 21(2,3): 103-122.

Hakuta, K. 2000. Points on SAT-9 Performance and Proposition 227. http://www.stanford.edu/~hakuta/SAT9/SAT9_2000/bullets.htm

Krashen, S. 1996. Under Attack: The Case Against Bilingual Education. Culver City, CA: Language Education Associates.

Krashen, S. 1999a. Condemned without a Trial: Bogus Arguments Against Bilingual Education. Portsmouth, NH: Heinemann.

Krashen, S. 1999b.  Why Malherbe (1946) is NOT evidence against bilingual education. NABE News 22(7): 25-26.

 Linn, R., Graue, E., and Sanders, N. 1990. Comparing state and district test results to national norms: The validity of claims that “everyone is above average.” Educational Measurement: Issues and Practice 10: 5-14.

Noonan, K. 2000. I Believed That Bilingual Education Was Best . . . Until The Kids Proved Me Wrong. Washington Post, Sunday, September 3, 2000.

Oller, K. and Eilers, R. (Eds.), Language and Literacy in Bilingual Children. Multilingual Matters. In press.

Orr, J. Butler, Y. Bousquet, M. and Hakuta, K. 2000. What can we learn about the impact of Proposition 227 from SAT9 scores? http://www. stanford.edu/~hakuta/SAT9/SAT9_2000/index.com

Parnet, S. 2000. Test-score gains fill schools with pride. San Diego Union Tribune, October 6, 2000.

Parnet, S. 2001. Gainful change: Oceanside schools seeing steady improvement on state performance rankings. San Diego Union Tribune, November 25, 2001.

Rossell, C. and Baker, K. 1996. Bilingual Education in Massachusetts: The Emperor has No Clothes. Boston: The Pioneer Institute for Public Policy Research.

Thompson, M., DiCerbo, K., Mahoney, K., and MacSwan, J. 2002. Exito in California? A validity critique of language program evaluations and analysis of English learner test scores. Education Policy Analysis Archives, 10(7). http://www.epaa.asu.edu/epaa.v10n7/

Willig, A. 1985. A meta-analysis of selected studies on the effectiveness of bilingual education. review of Educational Research 55: 269-316.

 

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